FXUS63 KMPX 261120 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
620 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

The large scale pattern this morning still features a deep,
positively tilted trough with the axis stretching from southern
CA to the northern Plains. Dozens of record cold highs are
expected across the central and western CONUS today. The
temperature map resembles what one would typically see in January.
MSP and EAU are predicted to break their records by a few
degrees with STC tying theirs.

Winter low and mid level stratus is always tricky, but it should
break up through the day as drier air arrives. Still, high clouds
streaming from the southwest should continue to shroud southern MN
and WI through the day. The coldest temps so far this season will
occur tonight as skies clear. Winds could decouple over western MN
and single digits may occur there, while teens are likely farther
east. GFS is running 10 to 15 degrees too cold for this morning,
which throws considerable doubt at its near zero readings
tonight. GFS would also break monthly low temperature records.
Sided with the 50th percentile which resulted in a slight warming
of lows.

Southwest flow will begin to bring warmer air in Tuesday, marking
the beginning of a lengthy warming trend.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

No significant changes to the previous forecast. The extended period
is dry across the CWA with moderating temperatures into next

Most locations will end October with high temperatures in the lower
50s. A broad northwest flow aloft will allow us to dry out and say
good bye to any precipitation chances. Ridging begins to build into
the Upper Midwest for the weekend. Saturday will be the warmest day
out of the long term with highs in the low 50s as referenced above.
Sunday and Monday appear to cool slightly with upper 40s for highs.
Both GEFS and EPS means have near-zero QPF over the next two weeks
as the primary storm track shifts north through Canada. Both also
signal a period of above normal temperatures to start off November
as does the CPC`s 8-14 day temperature outlook. To those who did not
finish up their yard work: the first week of November looks like the
perfect opportunity to if you are okay with the 5 pm sunsets
starting next Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

VFR through the period. West northwest winds will back southerly

KMSP...No concerns.

TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G20 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind WSW 10 kts.
THU...VFR with MVFR ceilings possible. Wind N at 10-15 kts.




SHORT TERM...Borghoff

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion