FXUS63 KMPX 170300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 959 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Gusty northwest winds developed today in the wake of a strong cold
front sweeping southeast across the Upper Midwest. More sunshine
prevailed today which led to higher afternoon temperatures then
previously thought. No changes to the overnight, and Wednesday`s
forecast as the colder air mass, and high pressure system, build
overhead tonight, and into Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday
may be a bit higher than expected due to models cool bias the last
couple of days.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

The long term trends continue the roller coaster temperatures with
a series of cold frontal passages affecting the CWA.

Southerly winds ahead of the first cold front will lift warmer air
across the region for Thursday into Friday. We should warm
readings through the 60s across most of the MN portion of the
area. We may even see a stray 70 to the southwest, to the lee of
the Buffalo Ridge Thursday afternoon. Clouds are expected to
increase Thursday afternoon with a small chance of some light
showers associated with the WAA pattern into Thursday night. The
latest ECMWF is more adamant in drawing in enough moisture for
the showers.

The first pacific cold front will move through Friday and should
cool temepratures somewhat after warmer morning lows. The real
cold surge should move south Saturday ushering much colder air on
blustery northwest winds. There may also be some cool showers
dropping in behind the front, mainly affecting the far eastern CWA
Saturday. Depending on how much and timing of the cold air that moves
in, there could be at least a rain snow mix if not a rain to snow
scenario. The ECMWF is a bit more amplified with the trough and
would most likely produce snow showers with the cooler air. We
will have to continue to monitor trends with this system during
the week.

The models diverge into early next week with the timing/handling
the next front. We will hold onto the blended guidance for this
period for now, with temperatures trending near or slightly below


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 959 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

VFR conditions throughout. There could be periods of stratus
across the northern TAF sites, but as of now expect the bases to
stay above 3000 ft, and the clouds to dissipate as high pressure
moves in overnight. Winds will be northwest and decrease around
sunset Wednesday evening.

VFR with northwest winds. No aviation concerns.

Thu...VFR with -SHRA possible late. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SW becoming NW 10-15 kts.
Sat.. VFR with -SHSN possible. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts





NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion