FXUS63 KMPX 171803

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
103 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Updated for the 18Z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

There are a couple mechanisms that will contribute to another day
with the potential for isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The first is a weak boundary stretching from southern
MN toward west central WI, and the other faint shortwave energy over
northern/central MN (in the base of the trough skirting the Canadian
border). The best chance for showers and thunderstorms associated
with these features will be during the afternoon and early evening
hours today, when instability (albeit modest) develops. We should
see periods of sunshine today, which combined with mixing to 800mb
should yield highs in the 75 to 80 degree range.

By Tuesday the boundary shifts south of the area and shortwave
energy doesn`t appear to be a factor, so have trended toward a dry
forecast. Given cooler surface high pressure will be settling into
the area, temperatures will likely be a few degrees cooler than
Monday`s highs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Mid-week is trending drier with consensus among models in keeping
the area of low pressure on Tuesday/Wednesday well to our south
across Iowa and Missouri. Removed PoPs from the forecast with the
exception of the I-90 corridor which could see a glancing blow from
the northern end of the precipitation shield. A wetter and more
active pattern continues to look more likely towards the end of the
week into the weekend, as a deepening trough to our west and
building ridge to our east places the Upper Midwest under amplified
southwest flow aloft. Timing differences among the models along with
differences in intensity continue to paint an unclear picture
regarding when and where exactly we`ll see the best chances for
precipitation, but a few periods stand out.

The first comes overnight Wednesday into Thursday as the entrances
region of the incoming Pacific jet noses into the region. Chances
look higher across the Dakotas where the main surface boundary and
instability axis will be located, but we could see some of that
activity spread into western Minnesota before likely decaying as it
heads east. The best shot for widespread showers and thunderstorms
is looking like Friday night into Saturday as our flow aloft becomes
more meridional and a deepening surface low over the northern plains
extends a front east into the area. Guidance is in pretty good
agreement with developing a few organized rounds of convection
along the front, but again differ in the details regarding track
and timing. Severe weather and a heavy rain threat look possible
with MUCAPE, bulk shear, and PW values all surging to impressive
values along and ahead of the front.

Temperatures will begin to feel more summer-like towards the
weekend, as southwesterly flow aloft brings more heat and humidity
into the region. Temperatures will start out seasonable
Wednesday/Thursday but more highs in the 80s will be expected by the
weekend, with that trend looking likely to continue into late


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

MVFR ceilings across eastern MN have finally eroded, but are still
in place across western WI. The western edge continues to erode,
but Eau Claire looks to be stuck under MVFR cigs through the
afternoon. For the remainder of the area, broken mid clouds
continue to spread over the area, with quick moving light showers
spreading across the area. Nothing more than VCSH was worth
mentioning in any particular TAF site. Winds will eventually turn
westerly in WI, and already have across MN. Northwest winds will
become the norm by tonight, and more MVFR will be possible
tomorrow morning across the area.

KMSP...VFR should prevail, but a random brief shower will remain
possible for the next several hours.

Wed...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...MVFR or lower with -TSRA possible. Winds SE 5-10 kts.





NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion