000
FXUS63 KMPX 281057
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
557 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Radar trends show another round of locally heavy rain moving
northeast into Eau Claire and Chippewa county in west-central
Wisconsin. The rain has developed along a weak stationary boundary
with high PWs and ample low level forcing. We will see things get
pushed out of the area near daybreak as the upper trough evident on
water vapor continues to drop into the upper Midwest. This should
allow skies to scatter out in the late afternoon/evening hours. For
tonight, conditions will dry out behind the cold front. Clear skies
and northwest flow will help low temperatures drop into the upper
40s/low 50s across the CWA. Clear skies and sunshine settles in for
Friday as high temperatures struggle to make it out of the upper
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

The long term forecast period still looks to be characterized by
ridging building toward the north central CONUS as a trough circulates
from James Bay across northern Quebec. As this pattern evolves,
the resultant northwest mid-level flow locally will bring fleeting
faint shortwave energy across the area. The first such feature,
that had been progged for Saturday, slipped farther southwest with
the 00Z run. Most areas now look to remain dry, except the far
southwest corner of MN. After that, the next chance for measurable
precipitation looks to be on Monday as a warm front lifts across
the area. GFS and ECWMF models continue to back off on the extent
of the ridge, so forecast highs in the mid/upper 80s for
Tuesday/Wednesday may be a bit optimistic, especially given the
potential for extensive cloudiness. Models are also now leaning
toward a baroclinic zone stalling just south of the area Tuesday
into Wednesday. This would given prolonged showers and
thunderstorms to the southern third of Minnesota.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

VFR through the period. Residual showers and mid to high level
stratus will continue near EAU, then taper off this afternoon.
Cloud cover elsewhere will begin to scatter and clear out as the
cold front approaches. Winds will become northwest and gust to 25
kt this afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind N at 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind light/variable.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BPH
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...BPH

NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion