FXUS63 KMPX 160354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
954 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

.Updated for 06 Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 949 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 312 PM  CST Fri Feb 15 2019

Quiet period ahead tonight and Saturday. Temperatures managed to
reach the upper teens in the forested areas this afternoon, while
remaining only in the single digits across southern and western MN
where albedo is much higher. High pressure ridge will build overhead
tonight and then retreat to the north on Saturday. This will keep
skies mostly clear and winds calm until late tonight. We should see
temperatures drop into the negatives this evening, but it could
remain slightly milder north of I-94 where temperatures warmed
better today due to less albedo.

Mid and high level clouds will increase late tonight and Saturday as
the system for Saturday night and Sunday approaches. Any snow is
expected to hold off until later Saturday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

The main concern in the long term period continues to be the
accumulating snowfall event this Sunday in Southern MN. A mid-level
shortwave trough will develop into a closed low over NE/SD
Saturday night. Energy ahead of a mid-level low will support snow
across Southern MN Saturday night through Sunday. A jet streak to
the south in IA may also provide upper level support in snowfall
production. Model guidance has been fairly consistent and
continues to show potential for 0.15-0.20" of QPF for Southern
Minnesota with near 0.25" for Southwestern MN. This leads
potential for 3-5 inches of snow from Madison, MN to Albert Lea.
There is high confidence in 3+ inches for Watonwan, Martin, and
Faribault counties, so a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
for those counties from Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.
Light, accumulating snow is expected as far north as I-94.

Energy ahead of another shortwave trough may bring another round of
precipitation to Southern MN on Wednesday. Otherwise, a longwave
trough will remain over the Southwest CONUS to North Central
CONUS, which will keep temperatures mostly below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 949 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019

VFR conditions throughout. Light winds will become east southeast.
The high clouds will thicken on Saturday and should see bases
lower Saturday evening in western Minnesota.

No aviation concerns.

Sun...MVFR with IFR/-shsn possible early. Wind NE at 10G15 kts.
Mon...MVFR cigs possible early, then VFR. Wind N at 05 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW at 05 kts.


MN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 PM CST
     Sunday for MNZ082-091-092.




NWS MPX Office Area Forecast Discussion